What’s behind China-Taiwan tensions?

Introduction

Taiwan is a group of 22 islands, roughly 100 miles from the coast of Southeast China. It sits in the so-called “first island chain”, which includes a list of US-friendly territories that are crucial to US foreign policy.

After a highly provocative visit by the Speaker of the US House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, to Taiwan in August 2022, the breakaway island of China, tensions between the USA and China have increased manifold.

It forced China to hold its biggest-ever mock military exercise around Taiwan, including the firing of ballistic missiles. It further exacerbated the already tense relations between Taiwan and China as China’s military exercises focused on six danger zones around Taiwan, out of which three overlap Taiwan’s territorial waters.

Taiwan has always been part of China.

Taiwan first appeared in Chinese records in CE 239, remained a Dutch colony from 1624 to 1661, and was administered by China’s Qing dynasty from 1683 to 1895, when Japan occupied after winning the first Sino-Japanese war.

China took the island again in 1945 after Japan lost World War II. A civil war erupted in mainland China between nationalist government forces led by Chiang Kai-shek and Mao Zedong’s Communist Party. The communists won in 1949 and took control of mainland China in Beijing.

Chiang Kai-shek and his nationalist party, the Kuomintang, fled to Taiwan, where they ruled for the next several decades. Taiwanese thus claim they were never part of the modern Chinese state that was first formed in 1911 or the People’s Republic of China, which was established under Mao in 1949

Chiang Kai-shek led the Kuomintang after fleeing to Taiwan and establishing a government in exile in Taiwan, which he led for the next 25 years. This group, referred to as Mainland Chinese, dominated Taiwan’s politics for many years, though they only account for 14% of the population

Chiang’s ROC government-in-exile at first claimed to represent the whole of China, which it intended to reoccupy. It held China’s seat on the United Nations Security Council and was recognised by many Western nations as the only Chinese government.

Realising that the Taipei government could no longer be considered a genuine representative of mainland China, the UN switched diplomatic recognition to Beijing, and the ROC government was forced out in 1971. The US formally established diplomatic ties with Beijing in 1979.

Relations started improving between the PRC and Taiwan in the 1980s as Taiwan relaxed rules on visits to and investment in China. In 1991, it proclaimed that the war with the People’s Republic of China was over. China proposed the “one country, two systems” option

In 2000, President Lee Teng-hui, known as Taiwan’s “father of democracy”, led constitutional changes, that eventually made way for the election of the island’s first non-KMT president, Chen Shui-bian.

Mr. Chen and his party, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), had openly backed “independence”. A year after Mr. Chen was re-elected in 2004, China passed its anti-secession law, stating China’s right to use “non-peaceful means” against Taiwan if it tried to “secede” from China.

Mr. Chen was succeeded by the KMT’s Ma Ying-jeou in 2008, who tried to improve relations through economic agreements. Eight years later, in 2016, Taiwan’s current president, Tsai Ing-wen, who now leads the independence-leaning DPP, was elected.

Why is Taiwan Important to China?

China has published a white paper titled “The Taiwan Question and China’s Reunification in the New Era.” This document outlines China’s goal of reuniting the mainland with Taiwan by 2049, emphasising that China is willing to take any measures necessary to prevent external forces from containing China and to safeguard its sovereignty, security, and development interests.

The reunification of Taiwan with the mainland is crucial for safeguarding China’s national interests for several reasons:

1. Unfinished Agenda of History: President Xi Jinping, in his 2017 report to the 19th Party Congress, set a deadline for reunification by 2049, stating that “complete national reunification is an inevitable requirement for realizing the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.” This goal is part of a broader vision to restore China’s historical status and national pride.
2. Historical Humiliation: Taiwan’s status as a separate entity serves as a constant reminder to the Chinese leadership and its people of the “Century of Humiliation” when China was subjugated and exploited by foreign powers. The lack of reunification is seen as a historical scar on the Chinese nation that must be healed to achieve full national dignity.
3. Strategic Vulnerability: Taiwan is viewed as China’s “soft belly” due to its geographic proximity and strategic importance. Similar to the USA’s Monroe Doctrine and Russia’s safeguarding of its “near abroad,” China perceives Taiwan as a crucial part of its regional sphere of influence. Control over Taiwan is essential for China’s territorial integrity and national security.
4. Economic Significance: Taiwan has a significant economic impact, with a GDP of $790 billion in 2021. Its economy complements that of mainland China, particularly through its robust foreign trade and high-tech industries. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), which dominates over half of the global market for computer chips, is vital for many electronic devices worldwide. Control over Taiwan would give China dominance in one of the world’s most critical industries.
5. Pillar of the China Dream: Reunification with Taiwan is central to China’s ambitions of becoming a global superpower. Any declaration of independence by Taiwan without a strong response from China would undermine its aspirations for global dominance and the realization of the “China Dream” of national rejuvenation and global influence
6. Military and Maritime Control: Control over Taiwan would allow China to extend its military reach further into the Pacific Ocean, enhancing its ability to project power and influence over regional nations. It would also enable China to control major shipping routes in Asia, crucial for international trade and economic stability.
7. Geopolitical Power Play: Dominating Taiwan would disrupt the USA’s “island chain strategy,” which serves as a barrier to Chinese expansion into the Western Pacific. This move would significantly alter the strategic balance in the region, weakening the geopolitical influence of the United States and its allies.
8. Domestic Political Stability: The legitimacy of the Chinese Communist Party (CPC) is closely tied to its ability to safeguard national interests, including the reunification of Taiwan. Any perceived weakness on this issue could undermine the CPC’s authority and stability. Therefore, a firm stance on Taiwan is crucial for maintaining domestic political support and the party’s long-term governance.

Taiwan holds multifaceted importance for China, encompassing historical, strategic, economic, political, and geopolitical dimensions. Its reunification with the mainland is seen as vital for China’s national rejuvenation, regional dominance, and global aspirations.

Why is Taiwan Important for the USA?

Diplomatically, the USA adheres to the “One-China” policy, maintaining formal ties with China rather than Taiwan. However, it has pledged to supply Taiwan with defensive weapons and has emphasised that any attack by China would cause “grave concern”. The USA’s policy of “strategic ambiguity” has historically meant that it has been deliberately unclear about whether or how it would defend Taiwan in the event of an attack. Declassified cables from 1982 detail the Six Assurances given to Taiwan:

1. The United States has not agreed to set a date for ending arms sales to Taiwan.
2. The United States has not agreed to consult with the PRC on arms sales to Taiwan.
3. The United States will not play a mediation role between Taipei and Beijing.
4. The United States has not agreed to revise the Taiwan Relations Act.
5. The United States has not altered its position regarding Taiwan’s sovereignty.
6. The United States will not exert pressure on Taiwan to enter into negotiations with the PRC.

In May 2022, President Joe Biden affirmed that the US would defend Taiwan militarily if needed. The White House later clarified that the US position on Taiwan had not changed, reiterating its commitment to the “One-China” policy.

America’s Interests in Taiwan:

1. Strategic Military Importance: If China were to take over Taiwan, it would gain a significant strategic advantage in the Western Pacific region. Taiwan’s geographic location is crucial for projecting power and influence. Control over Taiwan would enable China to extend its military reach and could threaten US military bases as far away as Guam and Hawaii. This shift would alter the balance of power in the Asia-Pacific region and undermine US strategic interests.
2. American Prestige and Global Leadership: A successful Chinese takeover of Taiwan would be a major blow to American prestige. It would signal a decline in US influence and commitment to its allies and partners. Such an event would embolden other adversaries and challenge the perception of the US as a reliable global leader. This could have far-reaching implications for US foreign policy and its role in the international order.
3. Alliances and Regional Security: Taiwan is a critical partner for the US in maintaining regional stability and security in the Asia-Pacific. A failure to defend Taiwan could send the wrong signals to other US allies in the region, such as Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines, about American sincerity, seriousness, and capabilities. It could weaken existing alliances and embolden other regional powers to challenge the status quo, leading to increased instability.
4. Economic and Technological Interests: Taiwan is a significant player in global technology and manufacturing, particularly in the semiconductor industry. Losing access to Taiwanese technology would be a substantial setback for the US. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is a global leader in semiconductor production, which is vital for various industries, including defence, telecommunications, and consumer electronics. Maintaining a strong relationship with Taiwan ensures the US remains competitive in critical technological fields.
5. Arms Sales Market: Taiwan is a major market for US arms sales. The continuation of arms sales to Taiwan is economically beneficial and enhancesTaiwan’s defence capabilities against potential Chinese aggression. This relationship helps to deter Chinese military actions and supports US defence industry interests.

Taiwan is strategically vital to the USA for military, economic, and geopolitical reasons. Its location provides a critical buffer against Chinese expansion in the Pacific, its technology sector is essential for global supply chains, and its political situation serves as a barometer for US commitment to its allies. Protecting Taiwan aligns with broader US goals of maintaining regional stability, upholding international norms, and preserving its leadership role on the global stage.

Possible Solutions to the Taiwan Issue

Taiwan remains one of the world’s most complex and potentially volatile geopolitical challenges. Here are several potential solutions, along with an analysis of their feasibility and implications:

1. Status Quo Maintenance:

This approach involves continuing the current state of affairs where Taiwan operates as a self-governing entity without formal independence, while China claims it as part of its territory. This approach will maintain peace and stability in the region, avoid immediate conflict, and allow both sides to continue economic and people-to-people exchanges. However, it perpetuates ambiguity and unresolved tensions, leaving room for miscalculation or escalation in the future. Taiwan remains in a precarious position without guaranteed international recognition or security.

2. Peaceful Reunification:

Taiwan and China agree on terms for peaceful reunification, potentially under a “one country, two systems” framework similar to that used in Hong Kong. This is the most likely scenario in which Taiwan accepts the Chinese offer which would protect the rights of Taiwanese citizens who would “enjoy a high degree of autonomy as a special administrative region”. However, it will take time.

This could lead to long-term stability and economic integration, reducing the risk of military conflict. Promotes regional harmony and could be seen as a diplomatic success. However, it is fairly unpopular in Taiwan, especially after the situation in Hong Kong, where freedoms have been increasingly curtailed. Trust in Beijing’s assurances is low, making this solution politically unviable in Taiwan.

3. Taiwan Unilaterally Declaring Independence:

Taiwan declares formal independence, seeking international recognition as a sovereign state in alignment with the democratic aspirations of many Taiwanese people, affirming Taiwan’s right to self-determination. However, it will be the red line for which China will declare war. Taiwan can delay the Chinese offensive, but not indefinitely. America will be huffing and puffing but will never send its troops to defend Taiwan, leading to significant regional instability or conflict. It could result in severe economic repercussions and international diplomatic complications.

4. International Mediation:

The involvement of an international body or coalition of countries to mediate a long-term solution between China and Taiwan could bring in a neutral perspective and thus help ensure that any agreement is fair and respected by both parties. It could enhance international legitimacy and support for the resolution. However, China traditionally opposes internationalization of the Taiwan issue, preferring bilateral discussions. Finding mutually agreeable mediators and terms could be challenging.

5. Enhanced Autonomy for Taiwan:

Negotiating a new arrangement where Taiwan has greater autonomy than it currently enjoys but remains under Chinese sovereignty in some form could be a compromise that avoids outright conflict and gives Taiwan more control over its affairs. This might be more acceptable to China than full independence. Similar to the “one country, two systems” model, it may be distrusted in Taiwan given recent events in Hong Kong. It requires significant concessions from both sides.

6. Incremental Confidence-Building Measures:

Both sides engage in step-by-step initiatives to build trust and reduce tensions, such as economic cooperation, cultural exchanges, and military de-escalation agreements. Gradually improving relations and reducing the immediate risk of conflict will create the foundation for more substantive negotiations in the future. However, it is a slow process with uncertain outcomes. It could be derailed by political changes or external pressures and may not address the core sovereignty issue directly.

7. Forceful reunification? Never unless — — —

Short of Taiwan declaring independence or the USA establishing a military base in Taiwan/equipping it beyond China’s tolerance level, China will not invade Taiwan and re-unify it forcefully for the following reasons:

1. Status Quo Suits China immensely: Besides being a source of huge trade and investment opportunities, Taiwan is an excellent conduit for the latest Western technology into mainland China by the expatriate Taiwanese
2. History is on China’s Side: Not only does the past favours China, but the future of Taiwan lies in its peaceful reunification with the mother country. Both sides know, so why rock the boat that is destined to land in mainland China?
3. Fear of Economic Sanctions: An invasion of Taiwan would likely result in potential economic sanctions. China values its global reputation and economic relationships, and an invasion of Taiwan could harm both
4. Military Challenge: An invasion of Taiwan would require a significant military operation, including the deployment of many troops and military equipment. This would be a challenging task, given Taiwan’s geography and the strength of its military
5. Cost: An invasion of Taiwan would be a costly undertaking for China, both in terms of military resources and economic expenditure. China would have to weigh the potential benefits against the costs.
6. Unpredictable Consequences: The Chinese are very pragmatic people; they know that an invasion of Taiwan could lead to unpredictable consequences, such as an armed conflict with the United States, Japan, or other allies of Taiwan. This could escalate into a wider regional conflict with significant geopolitical and economic implications.
7. Domestic Political Considerations: A military invasion could also be unpopular with the Chinese people, especially if it leads to significant casualties or economic damage. The Chinese government would have to consider the potential political fallout of such a move.

Because of the above-mentioned factors, invading Taiwan is a complex and risky proposition for China. While it remains a possibility, China may choose to pursue other means of asserting its influence over Taiwan, such as diplomatic pressure, economic incentives, or military threats short of invasion.

Conclusion

China would never want to go to war unless Taiwan declared independence. Its credibility as a peaceful nation is at stake. Presently, Taiwan is a golden hen for China because of its easy access to American technology through Taiwanese investment in mainland China. Taiwanese are also averse to war; they know their limitations and have serious reservations about American commitment. None of the ASEAN states wants to get involved in any war between the two giants

The United States plays a crucial role in the Taiwan issue. Continued US military and diplomatic support for Taiwan is essential for its security. However, the US must balance this with managing its relationship with China to avoid direct confrontation. The positions of other regional players, such as Japan, South Korea, and ASEAN countries, are also significant. Their support or opposition can influence the feasibility of various solutions.

Both in Taiwan and China, public opinion is a critical factor. Any solution must consider the will and aspirations of the Taiwanese people, as well as the nationalistic sentiments in China. The economic ties between Taiwan and China are substantial. Leveraging economic cooperation can be a tool for building goodwill and reducing hostilities, but economic pressures alone are unlikely to resolve the fundamental political and security issues.

Taiwan issue is deeply complex, requiring a multifaceted approach that considers historical context, political realities, regional security, and the aspirations of the people involved. A peaceful resolution will likely need a combination of strategic patience, diplomatic ingenuity, and international cooperation.

From my book “International Relations: Basic Concepts & Global Issues”, available at Amazon https://www.amazon.com/dp/B08QZSRWT1