Sources of Chinese Conduct
Abstract
In 1947, George F. Kennan penned “The Sources of Soviet Conduct,” a seminal article that illuminated the roots of the USSR’s hostility toward the West, catalyzing the U.S. and its allies to embrace a policy of containment that framed the Cold War. Today, as tensions rise, the United States is once again deploying containment, this time against China, informed by a parallel analysis of the “Sources of Chinese Conduct.”
This article explains how the West is deciphering the foundations of Chinese foreign policy — its ideological zeal, historical scars, geographical imperatives, and economic ambitions — to understand the strategic culture of the Chinese Communist Party. By exploring these underpinnings, the piece reveals how the West assesses Beijing’s actions, from territorial assertions to global economic manoeuvres, as it navigates a new era of rivalry.
Introduction
The foreign policy of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) under the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has perplexed and captivated observers for decades. To understand its trajectory — marked by assertive territorial claims, economic expansionism, and a blend of cooperation and defiance on the global stage — one must delve into the strategic culture of China’s ruling elite. This culture is shaped by a confluence of ideological commitments, historical experiences, geographical imperatives, and economic necessities. Like Kennan’s analysis of the Soviet Union, this examination seeks to identify the enduring features of China’s strategic outlook and how they dictate its conduct in the international arena.
The Foundations of Chinese Strategic Culture
The strategic culture of a nation is not a static doctrine but a living tapestry, woven from the threads of its internal dynamics and external pressures. For the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), the ruling elite of the People’s Republic of China, this culture emerges from a complex interplay of forces — ideology, history, geography, economics, politics, society, military traditions, and global interactions. These foundations are not mere footnotes; they are the bedrock upon which the CCP constructs its worldview and charts its course in an uncertain world. Let us explore each in turn as if unravelling the story of a civilization determined to reclaim its place under the sun.
1. Ideological Foundations
Deep within the CCP’s soul lies an ideological fire, kindled by the fusion of Marxist-Leninist fervour and a distinctly Chinese yearning for national rebirth. This is no simple transplant of foreign ideas; it is Marxism-Leninism with Chinese Characteristics, a doctrine honed through Mao Zedong’s revolutionary zeal and polished under Xi Jinping’s vision of “Socialism for a New Era.”
Here, the Party casts itself as the eternal guardian of China’s destiny, wielding supreme authority to fend off the spectre of Western liberalism. It sees history as a grand stage, where China must rise to fulfill a mission — not just of class struggle, but of cultural and national redemption.
Yet, beneath this modern creed lingers an older echo: the Confucian legacy. Though Mao once scorned it as feudal baggage, its principles — hierarchy, harmony, and a patient gaze toward the future — quietly permeate the CCP’s governance.
Together, these ideologies forge a ruling elite that is both revolutionary and rooted, defiant yet deliberate.
2. Historical Experiences
History is not a distant memory for the CCP; it is a living wound and a guiding light. The Century of Humiliation (1839–1949) casts a long shadow, its tale of foreign gunboats, opium wars, and carved-up territories searing into the national psyche a dread of weakness and a vow of sovereignty. From the Opium Wars to the fall of the Qing, China’s rulers learned that disunity invites predation, a lesson the CCP carries like a sacred oath.
Before that, however, was the Imperial Past, when China reigned as the Middle Kingdom, the radiant centre of a tributary world. This golden age whispers of rightful dominance, a regional order with Beijing at its heart. Then came the Civil War and Revolution, the bloody crucible of the 20th century. The CCP’s triumph in 1949, after decades of chaos, warlordism, and Japanese invasion, was no fluke — it was proof of resilience, a testament to the Party’s iron will and its claim to rule.
These chapters of history teach the elite to prize unity, to guard against external foes, and to see their grip on power as both earned and essential.
3. Geographical Imperatives
China’s geography is a vast and contradictory canvas, painting both strength and vulnerability. Its population — 1.4 billion strong, 92% Han — swells with potential, a human tide that demands food, jobs, and order. Yet within this sea are currents of unrest: Uyghurs in Xinjiang, Tibetans in the highlands, and minorities whose dissent tests the CCP’s resolve. The land itself sprawls across deserts, mountains, and plateaus, a fortress of strategic depth flanked by a long eastern coastline that opens to the world — and to danger.
Fourteen neighbours encircle it, from the rival giants of India and Japan to the volatile hermit of North Korea, each a piece in a delicate security puzzle. Resource-rich Central Asia beckons to the west, while the South China Sea glimmers with maritime promise to the south. But China’s bounty is uneven: its rare earth minerals gleam as a global trump card, yet its thirst for oil, gas, and grain binds it to distant lands.
This geography tells the story of a nation that must defend its edges, secure its lifelines, and turn its size into strength rather than burden.
4. Economic Stage and Requirements
Once a land of peasants and ploughs, China has leapt into an era of factories, skyscrapers, and global trade — a transformation that is both its pride and its peril. This developmental stage, from agrarian roots to an export-driven titan, is the CCP’s greatest triumph, lifting millions from poverty and cementing its rule. But the engine must keep roaring: growth fuels legitimacy and stagnation courts unrest.
The nation’s appetite is voracious — oil from the Middle East, minerals from Africa, soybeans from the Americas — all must flow to keep the machine alive. Economic leverage is China’s sword and shield, its manufacturing might and trillion-dollar reserves bending markets and nations to its will. Yet this power comes with a catch: to thrive, China must master technology, from semiconductors to AI, and guard against the chokeholds of sanctions or trade wars. This is a ruling elite that sees wealth not just as prosperity, but as survival.
5. Political Dynamics
At the heart of China’s strategic culture beats the drum of one-party rule. The CCP’s authoritarian grip is no accident — it is a deliberate fortress, built to withstand the storms of pluralism and dissent. Stability is its mantra, control its creed, and legitimacy its prize, won through promises of order and progress. Under Xi Jinping, the elite have coalesced into a tighter knot, but the ghosts of factionalism — Mao’s radicals versus Deng’s reformers — whisper caution against internal cracks.
Nationalism is the glue that binds this system, a fervour stoked by propaganda and pageantry, rallying the masses behind the Party’s banner, especially when borders or honour are at stake. This political tale is one of a regime that rules from above, wary of chaos below, and ever-ready to wield the state as a monolith against any threat, foreign or domestic.
6. Social Composition
China’s society is a mosaic in motion, its pieces shifting under the CCP’s watchful eye. The urban-rural divide tells a story of two worlds: gleaming cities, now home to over 60% of the population by 2025, pulse with ambition, while rural hinterlands cling to older ways, straining the Party to bridge the gap with jobs and welfare.
An educated middle class rises — tech-savvy, globally connected, hungry for status — pushing the CCP toward innovation and prestige, lest their dreams turn to discontent. Then there is the ethnic tapestry: Han dominance masks tensions with minorities, from Xinjiang’s Uyghurs to Tibet’s monks, whose resistance feeds a security obsession. This social saga reveals a ruling elite juggling progress and control, striving to harness restless people while silencing discordant notes.
7. Military and Technological Factors
The CCP’s strategic culture is forged in the fires of war and the labs of invention. Its military tradition stretches from the guerrilla shadows of Mao’s Long March to the gleaming steel of the modern People’s Liberation Army, a force that marries cunning with conventional might. Today, the PLA bristles with missiles, ships, and drones, a shield for the nation and a sword for its claims.
Technology, though, is the new frontier: the pursuit of self-reliance in AI, 5G, and space is less a choice than a crusade, driven by a hunger to leap past Western rivals and secure autonomy in a wired world. This is a story of a ruling elite who learned to fight from weakness, now building strength to never be weak again.
8. External Perceptions and Relations
China’s gaze outward is a dance of mirrors, reflecting both admiration and suspicion. The West looms large — a beacon of technological marvels to emulate, yet a shadowy foe whose democratic ideals threaten the CCP’s core. This duality fuels a competitive edge, a resolve to match and surpass while guarding against ideological siege.
Beyond the West, the global stage calls: the CCP yearns to reclaim the mantle of a “great power,” lost in centuries past, stepping boldly into forums like the UN or defying them when they clash with its will. This narrative is one of a nation — and a ruling elite — redefining its place, embracing the world on its terms, and rewriting the rules where it must.
Main Features of China’s Strategic Culture
From the intricate web of ideology, history, geography, and society emerges a strategic culture that guides the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) like a compass through the storms of the modern world. This is not a culture of fleeting whims or impulsive gambles, but one forged in the crucible of China’s past and present, distilled into enduring traits that shape the ruling elite’s every move. It is a tale of resilience and ambition, of caution and calculation, told through the features that define how China sees itself and engages with the globe. Let us step into this narrative and uncover the core threads that weave the CCP’s strategic soul.
1. Obsession with Unity and Control
Imagine a land fractured by warring states, scarred by civil strife, and stitched together only through the iron will of a single Party. The CCP’s obsession with unity and control is no mere quirk — it is a lifeline, born from the chaos of history’s Warring States period, the bloody turmoil of the 20th-century civil war, and the fragile mosaic of a nation where Han dominance overshadows restless minorities like the Uyghurs and Tibetans.
For the ruling elite, fragmentation is the ghost that haunts their dreams, and one-party rule is the bulwark against it. This fear translates into an unyielding grip: Taiwan must be reclaimed, for it is a piece of the motherland torn away; the South China Sea must be tamed, its waters a shield against invaders. At home, the machinery of control hums — cameras scan faces, censors sift words — all to ensure that dissent never cracks the edifice of stability. To the CCP, unity is not just a goal; it is the very breath of survival, a non-negotiable creed etched into every policy and proclamation.
2. Long-Term Orientation
Picture a chessboard where moves unfold not in hours, but across decades — a game where patience is the master stroke. This is the long-term orientation of the CCP, a rhythm borrowed from Confucian sages who preached harmony through time, from emperors who built dynasties to last centuries, and from modern planners who draft economic blueprints spanning generations.
The ruling elite do not chase quick victories; they plant seeds and wait. In the rugged borderlands with India, where clashes flare and fade, China bides its time, inching forward with outposts rather than risking all-out war. Across continents, the Belt and Road Initiative unfurls like a slow tide, binding nations with roads and rails, its payoffs measured not in years but in eras. This is a culture that sees history as a river — deep, relentless, and theirs to steer — where adversaries may falter from haste, but China endures through foresight.
3. Defensive Nationalism with Expansive Ambitions
Step into the shadow of the Century of Humiliation, where foreign boots trampled Chinese soil, and treaties carved away its pride. From this bitter tale springs a defensive nationalism, a shield against any who would weaken or divide the nation once more. The CCP stands vigilant, eyes narrowed at the United States encirclement, its naval bases and alliances a modern echo of past threats.
Yet beneath this guard lies a bolder dream, inherited from the Middle Kingdom’s glory — a vision of China not just safe, but supreme. This expansive ambition drives the elite to assert dominance, not merely to protect borders but to reclaim a sphere where neighbours bow in deference. In the South China Sea, reefs become fortresses; in Asia’s capitals, influence is courted with quiet insistence. The CCP’s story is one of a nation armouring itself against yesterday’s wounds while reaching for tomorrow’s crown.
4. Economic Pragmatism as a Strategic Tool
In a land reborn from agrarian toil into a titan of trade, economics is not just a lifeline — it is a weapon, wielded with cold pragmatism. The CCP knows its 1.4 billion mouths demand growth, its factories crave oil and ore, and its legitimacy rests on prosperity’s promise. From this reality emerges a strategy as old as commerce itself: bind the world to China’s needs without firing a shot.
The Belt and Road Initiative stretches like a merchant’s caravan, its ports and highways securing allies from Pakistan to Greece, its loans a subtle leash. Trade becomes a lever — sanctions answered with rare earth embargoes, markets opened to friends and closed to foes. This is no reckless conquest; it is a calculated dance, where the ruling elite turn factories into fortresses and yuan into influence, ensuring that China’s rise lifts its people while tethering others to its orbit.
5. Sovereignty as Sacred Principle
Once, foreigners dictated terms in treaty ports, and the sting of that subjugation still burns in the CCP’s memory. Sovereignty, then, is no abstract ideal — it is a sacred vow, forged in the fires of history and hardened by an ideology that scorns the West’s universal preaching. The ruling elite brook no meddling: human rights critiques from Geneva are met with stony defiance, their calls for transparency in Xinjiang or Tibet dismissed as imperialist overreach. In Hong Kong, where protests once flared, the Party imposed its own law, a “Chinese solution” to silence foreign tongues. This is a culture that sees interference as an echo of humiliation, and so it guards its realm with a fierce, almost spiritual resolve, insisting that China’s path be its own, untouchable by outsiders’ hands.
6. Adaptable Dualism
The CCP moves through the world like a shadow dancer, shifting between light and dark with ease. This adaptable dualism is a tale of survival, woven from the tightrope of one-party rule, the push-and-pull of Western rivalry, and the hunger for technological mastery. On one stage, China joins hands — pledging carbon cuts in climate talks, trading goods through global pacts like the RCEP — playing the partner when it suits. On another, it bares its teeth, clashing with the U.S. over 5G supremacy or locking horns in cyberspace, a rival unbowed. This duality is no contradiction; it is a strategy of balance, letting the elite sip from the world’s cup while guarding their own brew. They bend where they must, stand firm where they can, crafting a China that thrives in both harmony and discord.
7. Resource-Driven Security
Picture a nation vast yet wanting, its sprawling lands rich in some treasures — rare earths locked in its soil — but parched for others: oil, gas, and grain to fuel its cities and feed its masses. This is the root of the CCP’s resource-driven security, a saga born from geography’s limits, a billion-plus population’s needs, and an economy tethered to global veins. The South China Sea glints not just as a frontier, but as a lifeline — its shipping lanes a thread to Middle Eastern oil, its depths a hedge against the blockade. Farther afield, African mines yield cobalt, Australian fields send wheat, each deal a brick in a wall of self-preservation. The ruling elite see scarcity as a spectre to banish, and so they stretch their reach — naval fleets patrol, contracts bind — ensuring that China’s heart beats strong, no matter the storms beyond its shores
How Strategic Culture Shapes Foreign Policy Conduct
The strategic culture of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is no abstract philosophy confined to dusty tomes — it is a living force, pulsing through the arteries of China’s foreign policy. Like a river carving its path through stone, this culture shapes Beijing’s every move, its currents steady yet powerful, guided by patterns that reveal the ruling elite’s deepest instincts. As of February 21, 2025, these patterns unfold across the globe, from stormy seas to distant ports, from tense skies to gleaming boardrooms. This is the story of how China’s soul — its unity, patience, pride, and pragmatism — translates into action, a tale told through the deeds that define its place in the world.
1. Territorial Assertiveness (Unity and Control)
In the turquoise expanse of the South China Sea, a saga of steel and stone unfolds. Here, the CCP’s obsession with unity and control takes physical form, as dredgers pile sand into artificial islands and reefs sprout runways and radar domes. This is no mere land grab — it is a vow etched in history’s scars, born from the days when foreign powers sliced China apart. The ruling elite sees these waters as a birthright, a shield against the vulnerabilities of a coastline once breached by invaders. When the Hague’s tribunal in 2016 dared to rule against Beijing’s claims, the CCP dismissed it with a sneer, its rejection a thunderclap of defiance. By 2025, missile batteries gleam on these outposts, a message to rivals: China’s territory is non-negotiable, its control absolute. This is a nation haunted by fragmentation, welding its edges tight against the tides of time.
2. Belt and Road Initiative (Economic Pragmatism, Long-Term Orientation)
Far beyond China’s shores, a modern Silk Road unfurls, its threads of asphalt and iron weaving through 150 nations. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is the CCP’s grand tapestry, a monument to economic pragmatism and the patient gaze of centuries. Picture Sri Lanka’s Hambantota Port, its cranes now leased to Chinese hands after debt piled high — a quiet triumph of influence without conquest. This is no rash empire-building; it is a slow burn, securing lifelines of oil and ore while planting seeds of loyalty. From Pakistan’s rugged passes to Greece’s ancient harbours, the BRI stretches each project a brick in a wall of resource security and political sway. The ruling elite play a long game, their eyes fixed on a horizon where China’s needs are met not by force, but by the world’s own dependence — a merchant’s cunning cloaked in statesman’s robes.
3. Taiwan Stance (Defensive Nationalism, Sovereignty)
Across the narrow strait from Fujian’s coast lies Taiwan, a wound that never heals in the CCP’s heart. Here, defensive nationalism and the sanctity of sovereignty collide in a storm of jets and diplomacy. By 2024, the People’s Liberation Army had pierced Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone over 1,000 times, their warplanes a drumbeat of intent, a warning to an island the Party deems its own. On the global stage, the elite tighten their net: Nauru’s switch in 2024 from Taipei to Beijing marks another ally peeled away, a diplomatic noose around a defiant kin. This is not just policy — it is a crusade, fueled by the Century of Humiliation’s lingering sting and a vow that no foreign hand will sever China again. To the CCP, Taiwan is the final piece of a fractured puzzle, and they will brook no challenge to its return.
4. Tech Rivalry with the West (Adaptable Dualism, Technological Ambition)
In the invisible realm of circuits and code, a quieter war rages — one where the CCP’s adaptable dualism and technological hunger shine. Huawei’s 5G towers rise across continents, their signals threading through nations despite America’s bans, a testament to China’s dance between cooperation and rivalry. The “Made in China 2025” plan hums in the background, a blueprint to master AI, semiconductors, and robotics, turning supply chains into lifelines while challenging Western dominance. This is a tale of balance: the elite ship goods to global markets, yet bristle when the U.S. claws at their tech giants. By 2025, China’s satellites gleam in orbit, its quantum labs buzz, all part of a quest not just to compete, but to leapfrog — a nation bending the world’s rules while rewriting its own.
5. Resource Security (Resource-Driven Security)
In the swirling currents of the Indian Ocean, Chinese warships glide, their hulls a silent promise of protection. This is the front line of resource-driven security, a saga born from a land rich in people but poor in fuel and food. The $400 billion pact with Iran, struck in 2021, pours oil into China’s veins, a lifeline secured against the West’s chokeholds. Farther south, naval bases like Djibouti’s hum with activity, guarding the maritime threads that carry coal from Australia, copper from Zambia, and grain from Brazil. The South China Sea, too, is a prize — its lanes the arteries of an economy that cannot falter. For the CCP, scarcity is an enemy as real as any army, and so they stretch their reach, their ships and deals a shield against a world that might one day turn stingy.
6. Global Governance Strategy (Sovereignty, Dualism)
On the world’s grand stage, the CCP performs a dual act, its steps a blend of defiance and embrace. The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), sealed in 2022, crowns China as Asia’s trade maestro, its markets weaving 15 nations into a web of mutual gain — a triumph of integration. Yet in the UN’s halls, where Xinjiang’s shadow looms, the elite bare their teeth, brushing off criticism as colonial meddling, their sovereignty a fortress unbreached. This is adaptable dualism at play: they lead on climate, pledging green goals with a statesman’s grace, yet scorn human rights probes with a warrior’s glare. By 2025, China’s voice echoes louder in global councils, shaping rules where it can, dodging them where it must — a nation straddling cooperation and contention, ever guarding its sacred core.
Conclusion
China’s strategic culture, rooted in a rich tapestry of ideology, history, geography, economics, politics, and society, produces a foreign policy that is both methodical and multifaceted. The CCP seeks to restore China to its perceived historical stature while safeguarding its modern vulnerabilities, using a blend of patience, economic might, and selective confrontation. Understanding these sources of Chinese conduct — as Kennan did for the Soviets — offers a lens to anticipate Beijing’s moves and craft effective responses, whether through engagement, containment, or competition.
From the book “International Relations: Basic Concepts & Global Issues: 2nd Edition”, published by Amazon and available at
