Six Fault Lines of Afghanistan
Abstract
Despite being sparsely populated, agriculturally insignificant, industrially underdeveloped, and not blessed with known extraordinary mineral wealth up until now, Afghanistan has been playing a larger-than-life role in world politics throughout history. One of the reasons Afghanistan witnessed so many invasions, rebellions, and civil wars, sparking global wars, is the presence of certain fault lines in this unfortunate country.
This article explains six of these fault lines.
Introduction
Located at the southern edge of Central Asia, the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan is a landlocked country bordered by Pakistan, Iran, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and in the far northeast, China. Occupying 652,000 square kilometres (252,000 sq mi), it is a mostly mountainous country with a population of 32 million.
Six thousand years ago, this region was part of the Indus Valley Civilisation. Then it came under the Iranian king Cyrus and remained a satrapy of the Persian empire for more than 500 years. Then came Alexander the Macedonian, who dealt a crushing blow to the Afghans.
His successors then ruled Afghanistan for 500 years until it became a province of Indian ruler Chandra Gupt Mauria. Arab Muslims came from Baghdad in the 10th century, conquered it, and converted everyone to Islam. Afterwards, it remained either part of the Iranian Kingdom or the Turkish Empire. The Mongol leader Genghis Khan conquered Afghanistan and left his legacy in the form of the word “Khan,” which they very proudly use as part of their name.
Despite being sparsely populated, agriculturally insignificant, industrially underdeveloped, and not blessed with known extraordinary mineral wealth up until now, Afghanistan has been playing a larger-than-life role in world politics throughout history. Witnessing invasions, rebellions, civil wars, and sparking global wars, some of its fault lines that have been responsible for its woes are as follows.
1. Location
If the Middle East as a region has a unique geopolitical significance, Afghanistan as a country has been enjoying this distinction. Because of its geopolitical importance, located in the middle of four centres of power—the Middle East, Central Asia (former USSR), China, and South Asia, respectively, it provides a vital corridor for the movement of goods and armies. If for the USSR, it was its soft belly, Afghanistan is the backyard of Pakistan and the gateway to India. China prizes it as one of the most important corridors for reaching the Middle East and Central Asia, while Iran touts it for the same reason as Pakistan-its backyard, which could cause trouble if not kept in check.
Afghanistan’s significance from an energy standpoint stems from its geographical position as a potential transit route for oil and natural gas exports from Central Asia to the Arabian Sea. This potential includes the construction of the Trans-Afghanistan Pipeline gas pipeline-one of the reasons quoted for the launching of the War on Terrorism.
2. Resources
In the past, its strategic location as a corridor for the movement of goods was its main geo-economic resource. Its mineral wealth was unknown, and the known ones were inaccessible due to a lack of infrastructure. However, technological developments have revealed their vast economic resources. According to conservative estimates, Afghanistan has around 1500 mineral fields, containing various mineral resources ranging from coal, copper, gold, and gemstones of various kinds to iron ore, lead, natural gas, and petroleum.
According to a joint study by the Pentagon and the United States Geological Survey, Afghanistan has an estimated 1 trillion USD of untapped minerals, although other sources estimate it at 3 trillion USD. In December 2013, President Karzai claimed that mineral deposits are worth $30 trillion, a quantity that would exceed total global mining revenues (in 2016) by a factor of approximately 60.
3. Boundaries
Its third Fault line, which is a source of conflict, crises, and even wars, is the boundary conflict it has with its neighbouring countries, particularly Pakistan. After the dissolution of the British Indian Empire in 1947, Pakistan, as one of the successor states, inherited the 1893 agreement and the subsequent 1919 Treaty of Rawalpindi as its boundary with Afghanistan. After some initial reluctance, Afghanistan accepted it as an international border between the two countries but reneged in 1948 when a skirmish took place between the two countries. There has never been a formal agreement or ratification between Islamabad and Kabul. Pakistan believes, and international convention supports the position, that it should not require one; courts in several countries around the world and the Vienna Convention have universally upheld that binding bilateral agreements are “passed down” to successor states. However, Afghanistan does not recognise this boundary line and claims a major chunk of present-day Pakistan as its territory.
4. Divisions
Afghanistan has been ethnically diverse for millennia (there are 14 recognised ethnic groups, each honoured in the national anthem and protected by the constitution). However, it is the synergistic effect of overlapping these ethnic divisions with other divisions within Afghan society—rural versus urban and rich vs. poor—that has turned the dream of turning Afghanistan into a modern, prosperous, and peaceful country into a nightmare. National consensus, even on fundamental issues, has been problematic, exacerbated by rampant corruption and the stalled nation-building and state-building processes in the country.
No doubt, Islam as the dominant religion has given Afghanistan’s population a common denominator, but its sectarian divide has accentuated their internecine rivalries. While most Afghans are Sunni Muslims, the Hazara people, living in the region bordering Iran, are Shias. Having remained a satrapy of the old Persian Empire for several centuries, half of all Afghans now speak Dari, the local form of Persian. The rural-urban divide has also galvanised these ethnic divisions. Many Afghan Tajiks and Hazaras live in towns, while rural areas are mostly populated by the poor Pashtuns and the Baluchis.
The last straw on the camel’s back is the foreign intervention, covert and overt, which has spawned the differences. For the former USSR, Afghanistan was an underbelly where a pro-Soviet Union state and society were one of its security imperatives. To destabilize the USSR for achieving its Cold War geopolitical objectives, the USA promoted religiosity, assisted by Saudi Arabia, Gulf states, and Pakistan in its soft belly. Fearing too much Saudi influence, Iranians started backing their sectarian affiliates. Resultantly, the whole of Afghanistan is now a powder keg rife with ethnic and sectarian divides, sadly co-terminus with tribal identities. Unfortunately, these ethnic and sectarian divisions are represented in all of its state institutions, adversely affecting across-the-board service delivery.
5. Underdevelopment
One of the tragedies of Afghanistan is that it escaped the modern wave of colonialism, which swept most of the world from the 16th to the 20th centuries. No doubt, western imperialism was a curse, but it did have some positive spin-offs in the form of infrastructural development and economic integration of the colonies with the developed world of the day. Its second tragedy was that it was a playground of the rivalry between Russia and the British Indian Empire and afterwards between the USSR and the USA during the Cold War, but it was never properly occupied by any one of them.
Consequently, despite all the foreign aid, it has received from international donors, Afghanistan has remained underdeveloped. It is reflected in all its socio-economic indicators. According to the latest Human Development Report, Afghanistan is the 5th least developed country in the world. With life expectancy hovering around the mid-forties and an adult literacy rate of less than 30, more than 60 % of the population of Afghanistan lives below the poverty line. Poverty and inequality, two major manifestations of underdevelopment, are reducing the buying power of the people, thereby adversely affecting business prospects. The lack of job opportunities is further alienating the youth, pushing them to join militant organisations.
6. Weak State
Finally, the fault line in Afghanistan is its ineffective state-building and the state itself. One of the reasons for this capacity deficit of the state to provide basic social services to most of its citizens at affordable costs is the zeal of its successive ruling elites to govern this diverse country and impose social order from Kabul. Because Afghanistan is one of the most centralized governments in the world, none of its rulers, with the exception of a few exceptional years, have succeeded in maintaining institutionalised law and order, a prerequisite for providing other essential social services.
Consequently, all its institutions-armed forces, judiciary, law enforcement, etc.—are dysfunctional, suffering from extreme inefficiency and massive corruption. It has created a crisis of confidence among the people about their state, which is being exploited by non-state actors. They thrive and get support from the population by maintaining a semblance of stability and providing quick justice through primitive means in their respective areas of control.
Tailpiece
Afghanistan, to a great extent, is the Lebanon of Central Asia. Just study the power-sharing formula in Lebanon, and you will have some idea of the future of Afghanistan.
From the book “International Relations: Basic Concepts & Global Issues” published by Amazon and available at https://www.amazon.com/dp/B08QZSRWT1
