Is Bashar Al Assad really popular in Syria?
One thing has always surprised me about the present Syrian crises. If Assad represents only 15% of the population as propaganda machinery says, then why 85% of the Syrian population which makes the bulk of the Syrian armed forces, rank and file, have not been able to throw him out? And that too when all the material, financial, intelligence and human support has been available to them.
Waiting for the regime to collapse under pressure, USA, Saudi Arabia and other client states of USA in Middle East provided financial assistance, diplomatic support through Arab League and religious backing to the rebels-a repeat of Afghan Jihad. Similarly, Israel being the biggest beneficiary of the present Syrian crises whether these are resolved or not also provided all the necessary financial, material and intelligence assistance to the Anti-Assad forces in the conflict. All these efforts of USA and its allies have failed.
Reason is very simple. We may not like to believe; Syrian people are NOW behind Assad not out of any love for him but for very pragmatic reasons. After witnessing what happened to Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya they have realised that alternative to Assad is deluge. Yes, people do want empowerment but they want security of life and safety of their property first. They know that in the event of regime change it will be state collapse and the Raj of the footloose mercenaries. USA will just go back like they always do after their misadventure and leave the people in the lurch. And what will the mercenaries do to them is any body’s guess.
Building on this popular fear of the future in the wake of his ouster, Assad has been successful in holding on. He has dug in with the help of internal tribal alliances, staunch support of minorities like the Christians, Druze and the Alawites and the extreme loyalty of the Syrian armed forces. Contrary to the popular perceptions created by the Axis (NATO/Israel/Saudi Arabia), Syrian security apparatus although heavily dominated by the Sunnis, are still loyal to him. Keep in mind the Security establishment of Syrian government is headed by a Sunni (Ali Mamlouk). Yes, Alawites are also there but so are the Christians and the Druze and a few Jews also.
Consequently, despite the defection of some senior officers and hundreds of its foot-soldiers in the first two years of the conflict, the core Syrian security forces remain very much intact, staunchly loyal and more determined to crush the enemies of Syria-internal or external. That is why the foreign sponsored rebels have thus far failed to make any major dent in the political support Assad enjoys of the influential sections of society and the tribes.
Originally published at http://quora.com.
