Donald Trump’s Domestic and Foreign Policy Agenda

Introduction

Donald Trump, a businessman and media personality, became the 45th president of the United States, serving from 2016 to 2020. Born in 1946 in Queens, New York, Trump was known for his real estate ventures and as the host of The Apprentice before transitioning into politics. Running as a Republican outsider, he won the presidency in 2016 by appealing to concerns about economic stagnation, political gridlock, and globalization’s effects on American jobs. His presidency was marked by significant economic policies, including tax cuts and deregulation, along with a focus on America-first trade policies, especially concerning China.

After leaving office in 2021, Trump continued to wield substantial influence within the Republican Party. Amid rising inflation and economic concerns under his successor, he has garnered renewed support by presenting himself as a solution to these economic challenges and by tapping into a growing unease over issues like inflation, immigration, and technological competition with global powers like China. His resurgence reflects a deepening alignment with voters seeking a return to his populist and economically focused policies.

When Donald Trump assumes office in January 2025, his approach to foreign policy will likely be influenced by several key considerations, including the timing of his inauguration amidst evolving global dynamics, his domestic priorities, and the enduring continuity of U.S. foreign policy objectives. Analyzing these elements provides insights into his potential strategies, particularly concerning Pakistan and the broader geopolitical landscape.

1. Timing and Evolving Global Context

• Transition Period Dynamics: Trump would take office during a critical time when geopolitical events, such as ongoing conflicts (e.g., the Russia-Ukraine war or tensions in the Indo-Pacific), could significantly influence his early decisions. This transitional period may compel him to react pragmatically to immediate challenges.
• Adaptation to New Realities: Shifts in alliances, global economic trends, or changes in regional balances of power (e.g., growing China-Russia collaboration) will shape his foreign policy approach.

2. Domestic Priorities

• Focus on “America First”: True to his campaign promises, Trump will likely prioritize domestic concerns like economic revival, infrastructure modernization, and immigration control. These issues resonate strongly with his voter base.
• Foreign Policy Through a Domestic Lens: International engagements will likely be evaluated based on their direct benefits to the U.S., reinforcing transactional relationships rather than multilateral cooperation.

3. Continuity in U.S. Foreign Policy

• Institutional Constraints: Despite Trump’s unique style, U.S. foreign policy is influenced by longstanding institutional objectives. Strategic containment of China, commitment to NATO, and securing energy interests in the Middle East will remain priorities.
• Incremental Changes: While Trump may introduce headline-grabbing initiatives, such as reshaping trade policies or revisiting alliances, the overall direction of U.S. foreign policy will evolve incrementally.

Likely Approaches in Key Foreign Policy Areas

In his newly elected term, Donald Trump’s foreign policy agenda likely builds on his previous administration’s actions and recent campaign rhetoric. Based on his statements, a focus on countering China, reshaping climate policy, reassessing defence commitments, particularly NATO, maintaining strategic relationships in the Middle East, addressing the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and pursuing “America First” trade reforms could be expected. These areas, reflecting his previous presidency’s objectives, are likely to shape his second term.

1. Confronting China

Trump has consistently been vocal about addressing what he views as economic abuses by China, including intellectual property theft, currency manipulation, and economic espionage. He aims to protect American jobs by reducing dependence on Chinese imports, especially in critical industries such as electronics, steel, and pharmaceuticals.

Key elements of his strategy include:

• Expanding tariffs on Chinese imports, potentially tripling the current rates, to protect U.S. industries.
• Implementing a plan to phase out imports of “essential goods” from China over four years.
• Restricting Chinese investment in critical U.S. sectors and revoking China’s “most favoured nation” trade status.
• Tightening export controls on technologies like semiconductors and blocking Chinese acquisitions of U.S. technology firms.

Trump also indicated support for Taiwan, increasing arms sales and U.S. Navy patrols, while challenging China’s territorial claims in the South China Sea. His administration has condemned China’s policies toward the Uyghurs, imposing sanctions on officials linked to human rights abuses.

2. Climate Policy and Energy Independence

Trump’s climate policy contrasts sharply with current international climate agreements. A sceptic of the human impact on climate change, he has expressed a desire to pull the U.S. out of the Paris Agreement once again and to dismantle Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act, which supports clean energy. Instead, his focus remains on bolstering fossil fuel production and streamlining the permitting process for oil and gas projects, which he argues will reduce inflation and make the U.S. energy-independent.

Key climate and energy strategies include:

• Rolling back clean energy subsidies and reducing regulatory burdens on fossil fuels.
• Opening more U.S. waters and protected lands for drilling and increasing liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports.
• Supporting nuclear energy by funding projects for small modular reactors to diversify the energy mix.

3. Defence

Trump has frequently questioned NATO’s effectiveness and argued that U.S. allies in Europe should bear a greater share of defence costs. He has previously threatened to reduce the U.S. role in NATO, criticizing member countries for not meeting defence spending targets.

Key defence priorities include:

• Reassessing NATO’s strategic objectives, with a focus on the U.S. contribution to the alliance.
• Expanding the U.S. military budget, with an emphasis on space and missile defence initiatives, including creating the U.S. Space Force.
• Reducing U.S. troop deployments abroad, following up on his earlier efforts to negotiate a withdrawal from Afghanistan.

Trump has also questioned international organizations like the UN and the International Criminal Court, arguing they should not influence U.S. defence and law enforcement policies.

4. Middle East

Trump’s approach in the Middle East prioritizes close relationships with Israel and Saudi Arabia while taking a hard stance against Iran. He has been a strong advocate for Israel, moving the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem and supporting normalization deals with Arab countries through the Abraham Accords. He remains committed to isolating Iran, which he sees as a leading sponsor of terrorism.

Expected policy moves include:

• Continuing strong support for Israel, particularly amid tensions with Palestinian groups.
• Strengthening ties with Saudi Arabia for economic and strategic cooperation, including military support and arms sales.
• Maintaining sanctions on Iran, potentially seeking to reinstate sanctions lifted under the Iran nuclear deal, from which he withdrew the U.S. in 2018.

5. Russia-Ukraine

Trump has positioned himself as a potential peace broker in the Russia-Ukraine war. However, he has indicated reluctance to provide additional U.S. aid to Ukraine, urging European nations to increase their contributions.

Specific policy positions include:

• Promoting a quick resolution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, though details on his approach remain unclear.
• Maintaining his position that Europe should lead in providing aid to Ukraine.
• Reviewing existing sanctions on Russia, although he previously expanded Obama-era sanctions in response to cyber threats and election interference.

6. Trade

Trump’s trade policy centres on “rebalancing” trade to support American manufacturing. He views the global trade system as biased against the U.S., citing large trade deficits, job losses, and offshoring. His administration renegotiated NAFTA into the USMCA and imposed tariffs to protect domestic industries. In a second term, he would likely take even more aggressive steps.

Key trade initiatives could include:

• Imposing a “universal” tariff on imports, with additional tariffs on countries imposing higher duties on U.S. goods.
• Pursuing a “tariff for a tariff” approach, aimed at deterring other nations from challenging the U.S. dollar’s role in global trade.
• Reassessing the USMCA to address trade concerns, specifically targeting auto imports from Mexico with higher tariffs.

In conclusion, Donald Trump’s foreign policy agenda in his new term would likely reflect a continuation of his “America First” philosophy, emphasizing economic independence, limited foreign entanglements, and prioritization of American industry and energy production. His confrontational stance on China, scepticism of climate policy, a rethinking of NATO commitments, steadfast support for Israel, pragmatic approach to Russia-Ukraine, and pro-U.S. trade agenda together define a distinct approach aimed at reshaping America’s role on the global stage.

Donald Trump: Domestic Agenda

Donald Trump’s proposed domestic policy agenda, outlines substantial shifts in technology, economic, health, and immigration policy. Key areas of focus would be the advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) and technological innovation, economic reforms to reduce government spending and inflation, intensified cybersecurity, and restrictive immigration policies. Like his previous term, Trump’s approach emphasizes deregulation, national security, and economic nationalism. The following is a deeper look into these main areas of concern:

1. Technology

Trump’s approach to AI and technology is both ambitious and controversial. Seeing AI as part of an international “arms race,” particularly against China, Trump emphasizes that the United States must lead in AI development for both national security and global competitiveness. His policies include:

• AI Development and Federal Strategy: In 2019, Trump issued the first U.S. executive order on AI, setting the stage for a federal strategy to bolster AI research and development. This was reinforced by Congress’s bipartisan National AI Initiative Act in 2020, which further funded non-defense AI projects. Trump’s plan would involve removing Biden-era restrictions, allowing for faster AI advancement.
• Silicon Valley Criticism and Antitrust Moves: Trump is critical of large tech companies, claiming that firms like Google and Meta exhibit anti-conservative biases and are threats to fair elections. His administration began antitrust reviews of major tech firms, and he has previously accused them of “unconstitutional” censorship. A re-election would likely see Trump continue challenging their influence through regulatory changes.
• Cybersecurity Initiatives: During his term, Trump issued executive orders to strengthen U.S. cybersecurity infrastructure, addressing a critical shortfall in skilled practitioners. Despite these efforts, a cybersecurity workforce gap persists. Trump aims to invest more in this area and allow U.S. Cyber Command greater flexibility in cyber-offensive strategies.
• Cryptocurrency and Financial Innovation: Trump favors embracing cryptocurrencies, opposing extensive government monitoring of crypto transactions and resisting the establishment of a central bank digital currency (CBDC). He proposes the U.S. create a national stockpile of bitcoin to lead in digital finance.

2. Economy

Trump’s economic vision aims to lower inflation, reduce the national debt, and promote business growth through tax cuts and deregulation. The core elements of his economic agenda include:

• Tax Reforms: Trump’s 2017 tax reform significantly lowered the corporate tax rate and adjusted the taxation of multinational firms, aiming to stimulate domestic production. He now proposes further cuts, reducing corporate tax to 15% for U.S.-based manufacturing, though this could increase federal debt over the next decade.
• Deregulation: A hallmark of Trump’s economic agenda, deregulation would reduce oversight in sectors like energy, agriculture, and finance. Trump previously loosened Dodd-Frank Act regulations for small banks, and he pledges to cut back federal agency influence further, asserting that regulations suppress economic growth.
• Federal Debt and Spending Cuts: Trump contends that the rising federal debt and inflation under Biden’s administration call for drastic spending reductions. Though he supports using the debt ceiling as leverage, Trump maintains that major programs like Social Security, Medicare, and defence will remain protected from cuts, shifting reductions to other discretionary spending areas.

3. Pandemic Preparedness

Trump’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic included a combination of stimulus measures and rapid vaccine development through Operation Warp Speed. Key aspects of his health policy approach are:

• Pandemic Response and Vaccine Development: Trump’s administration facilitated the rapid development of COVID-19 vaccines, emphasizing private-sector collaboration. His stance on pandemic responses favours limited restrictions and heightened individual freedom, suggesting he would resist current or future COVID mandates and other health restrictions.
• Global Health Initiatives: Trump’s previous withdrawal of funding from the World Health Organization (WHO) and critical view of global health authorities reflect a shift away from multilateral health cooperation. He argues that such organizations mismanaged COVID-19 and that funding should be carefully scrutinized.
• Abortion Policies: Trump has reinstated the “Mexico City policy,” which prevents U.S. aid from funding abortion-related programs abroad, and favours strict limitations on abortion with exceptions only for rape, incest, or life-threatening circumstances.

4. Immigration

Immigration policy is a priority for Trump, focusing on stricter border control, reduced legal immigration, and extensive deportation operations. Key components include:

• Deportation and Enforcement: Trump aims to launch a significant deportation effort, modelled after President Eisenhower’s 1954 “Operation Wetback.” He proposes using the National Guard to support deportations and invoking the 1798 Alien Enemies Act to expedite the removal of suspected gang members and drug cartel affiliates.
• Asylum and Refugee Restrictions: Policies like the “Remain in Mexico” program, which mandates non-Mexican asylum seekers to wait in Mexico for U.S. court hearings, are set to be revived. Trump also advocates for using Title 42 public health measures to expel migrants, initially used during the pandemic.
• Ending Birthright Citizenship: Trump has long proposed ending birthright citizenship for children born in the U.S. to undocumented immigrants, challenging the constitutional basis of this practice.
• Southern Border Wall and Visa Limits: Trump plans to continue expanding the border wall and impose new restrictions on visa programs, focusing on limiting family reunification visas in favor of a merit-based system that would prioritize skilled labourers.

Conclusion

Trump’s domestic policy agenda revolves around enhancing U.S. technological prowess, curbing government regulation, and solidifying national security through economic and immigration reforms. His approach aims to reduce federal spending while protecting specific social programs, increase cybersecurity, and allow for more private-sector control over health and AI advancements. Although these policies could foster growth in AI and economic resilience, they also introduce questions about federal debt, immigration, and social program sustainability.

Likely U.S.-Pakistan Relations and American Policy Toward Pakistan Under Donald Trump

U.S. foreign policy serves as an institutional framework designed to address long-term objectives, with substantial continuity across administrations. Although each administration, including that of Donald Trump, has nuanced foreign policy priorities, the foundational approach often persists. Therefore, much of what we’ve discussed under President Joe Biden’s administration would likely continue under a Trump presidency, with certain adjustments reflecting Trump’s distinct foreign policy tone. Trump’s approach would likely prioritize a transactional and pragmatic framework while recognizing the complex dynamics in U.S.-Pakistan relations.

1. Afghanistan and Counterterrorism Cooperation

The U.S. relationship with Pakistan in the context of Afghanistan and counterterrorism has historically been one of necessity and mutual interest, and this would remain central under Trump.

• Focus on Counterterrorism: Trump’s administration had a history of pressuring Pakistan to take stronger action against terrorist groups within its borders. Trump was direct about expecting Pakistan’s assistance in containing extremist networks to prevent the resurgence of terrorism in Afghanistan, as evidenced by his decision to suspend security assistance during his previous term.
• Monitoring Taliban Dynamics: Trump’s administration initiated the U.S.-Taliban peace agreement in 2020, which paved the way for the U.S. withdrawal. A return of Trump to office would likely see continued demands on Pakistan to influence the Taliban to curb extremist activities, maintain regional stability, and deny safe havens to terror networks like al-Qaeda and ISIS-K.

2. Evolving Strategic Partnerships

As Pakistan’s strategic alignment with China deepens, the U.S.-Pakistan relationship faces new complexities. Trump’s “America First” approach emphasized prioritizing U.S. interests, which often translated into heightened caution regarding Pakistan’s ties with China.

• Pakistan’s China Partnership: The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is a significant concern for the U.S., as it is central to China’s Belt and Road Initiative. A Trump administration would likely amplify scrutiny of CPEC, viewing it as a vehicle for Chinese influence that contradicts U.S. goals in the Indo-Pacific region. Trump would likely urge Pakistan to reassess its close ties with China, framing it as a choice between U.S. partnership benefits and alignment with China.
• India-U.S. Partnership: Trump strongly supported India as a strategic counterweight to China in Asia. The U.S. could reinforce its military and economic cooperation with India, a position that has historically raised Pakistan’s concerns over regional security imbalances. A Trump administration would likely maintain close ties with India, potentially complicating U.S.-Pakistan relations further.

3. Security Assistance and Defence Ties

Trump’s foreign policy stance towards Pakistan has typically been shaped by conditionality, often viewing security aid through a lens of results and accountability.

• Suspension of Security Assistance: Under Trump’s prior term, security aid to Pakistan was frozen in response to what he perceived as insufficient action on counterterrorism. A second Trump administration might continue this limited engagement, opting for specific counterterrorism operations rather than a broader security partnership.
• Conditional Défense Cooperation: While a Trump administration might maintain limited defence support, such as assistance for Pakistan’s counterterrorism operations, it would likely be selective and outcome-driven, focusing on transparency in Pakistan’s anti-terrorism measures.

4. Economic Engagement and Development Cooperation

In economic terms, Trump’s previous focus was on achieving favourable trade outcomes for the U.S., with less emphasis on development aid and cooperative initiatives.

• Trade Relations: While the U.S. remains a major export market for Pakistan, Trump’s administration was generally unresponsive to Pakistan’s requests for increased market access, particularly for textiles. Under Trump, economic ties might remain limited, focusing more on transactional gains rather than long-term development assistance.
• Development Aid on Hold: Trump’s earlier budget proposals showed reduced allocations for foreign aid, and he frequently advocated for nations to “pay their own way.” Development cooperation with Pakistan under Trump would likely focus on areas with direct U.S. benefits, such as health security, without substantial increases in humanitarian aid.

5. Climate Change Cooperation

Climate change has not been a prominent agenda item for Trump, as seen in his decision to withdraw from the Paris Climate Accord during his first term.

• Limited Climate Engagement: While Biden’s administration provided humanitarian support to Pakistan following devastating floods in 2022, Trump’s policies have historically deprioritized climate funding and environmental diplomacy. Under Trump, U.S. support in climate resilience for Pakistan would likely be modest, if present, as his administration would focus on immediate economic priorities.
• Reduced Climate Diplomacy Focus: Trump’s likely approach to climate change would be in contrast with Biden’s, leaning more toward energy independence and less toward international climate cooperation. Pakistan may need to seek alternative global partners for robust climate support if Trump were to reduce U.S. involvement in international climate funding.

6. Human Rights and Governance

The Trump administration would likely continue to address governance and human rights in Pakistan but in a more restrained manner compared to Biden’s focus on promoting democratic values abroad.

• Selective Pressure on Human Rights: Trump’s administration has historically been pragmatic, prioritizing strategic interests over human rights advocacy. While he might voice occasional concerns over press freedom or governance issues in Pakistan, they would not likely become a primary determinant of U.S.-Pakistan relations.
• Transactional Focus on Governance: Rather than pushing for governance reform, Trump’s administration would likely emphasize outcomes linked to U.S. interests, such as security and stability. Governance critiques would likely be secondary, contingent on Pakistan’s alignment with U.S. goals.

7. Challenges and Diplomatic Strains

Under Trump, the U.S.-Pakistan relationship could encounter new diplomatic complexities, especially if mutual strategic goals appear to diverge.

• Domestic Political Dynamics in Pakistan: During Trump’s previous term, domestic Pakistani leaders like Imran Khan often reacted critically to perceived U.S. interference. Trump’s approach to Pakistan’s internal politics would likely remain non-interventionist, focusing on transactional diplomacy.
• Regional Challenges with China and India: Trump’s inclination to counterbalance China and strengthen ties with India would create diplomatic tensions, as Pakistan might see this as compromising regional security. Trump’s consistent “America First” stance could magnify these tensions if Pakistan’s policy choices do not align with U.S. strategic objectives.

8. Future Outlook: Pragmatic Cooperation

Despite these complexities, there remain opportunities for constructive, albeit cautious, collaboration.

• Potential for Pragmatic Engagement: Under Trump, areas such as counterterrorism and regional stability could provide grounds for cooperation, albeit in a limited and outcome-driven manner.
• Selective Collaboration in Health and Security: Trump might prioritize health security and pandemic preparedness in regions important to U.S. security interests, offering an avenue for collaboration with Pakistan.
• Navigating the China-India Balance: The U.S. will likely maintain its dual approach of strengthening ties with India and cautiously engaging with Pakistan. Trump’s policy would likely balance these relationships to sustain a regional equilibrium while addressing U.S. strategic interests in South Asia.

Conclusion

Under Trump, U.S.-Pakistan relations would likely remain grounded in mutual necessity and pragmatism. Key areas like counterterrorism and regional security would continue to drive U.S. engagement, while broader partnerships in trade, development, and climate could be deprioritized. The future trajectory of U.S.-Pakistan relations would require both nations to manage underlying complexities, maintaining a balanced relationship in a region with shifting alliances and security concerns. The relationship’s enduring challenges, coupled with Trump’s “America First” approach, would keep U.S.-Pakistan ties pragmatic, with cautious cooperation shaped by strategic interests and regional dynamics.