Arab Spring: Causes, Consequences & Lessons Learnt
Abstract
Every event, big or small, is the outcome of multiple reasons and then itself becomes a cause for several subsequent events. The Arab Spring is one such event. It was a spontaneous uprising of the public against the bad governance of modern Middle Eastern countries in the first half of the 21st century. Its spontaneity and severity may have surprised a few people, but it had been in the making for a long time.
Besides discussing its causes, long-term as well as short-term, structural as well as managerial, this essay highlights a few lessons that we can learn from the Arab Spring for effective policy formulation.
Introduction
Every event, big or small, is the outcome of multiple reasons and then itself becomes a cause for several subsequent events. The Arab Spring, a spontaneous uprising of the public against the bad governance of modern Middle Eastern countries in the first half of the 21st century, was one such event. It started in Tunisia, where a 26-year-old street vendor named Abu Bouazizi committed suicide to protest the highhandedness of a petty government official who had insulted him and seized his business goods. However, it soon engulfed the entire country in violent demonstrations against the government.
The immediate result of the Arab Spring was the regime change and subsequent transformation of the governance style in Tunisia, leading to the advent of democratic reforms in the country. Its success led to its copycat replication in Egypt, where it also resulted in the toppling of the two-decade-old corrupt dictatorship of Hosni Mubarak. Elections held on an adult franchise basis resulted in the coming into power of the Muslim Brotherhood, a far-right Islamic movement. The Muslim Brotherhood government was later thrown out by the army in a coup d’etat that had much popular support but resulted in a regime that is no less authoritarian than Mubarak’s.
However, it failed to achieve similar results in other Arab countries, for one reason or another. Western intelligence agencies then took charge of these movements in Libya and Syria, while in other ME countries, they were ruthlessly suppressed. It is really unfortunate to observe how a largely peaceful development, which inspired millions around the world, fizzled out with a whimper in the end. Rather, it contributed to the situation obtaining in the Middle East today: internationalized civil wars in both Syria and Yemen, the rise of the Islamic State, authoritarian rule in Egypt, the collapse of the central government in Libya, and migrants risking their lives and properties to flee to Europe?
Causes
Its spontaneity and severity may have surprised a few people, but it had been in the making for a long time. That vendor’s incident was just the tipping point for the start of the Arab Spring. History is replete with such events, which started with small events but were in the making for a long time. French and American Revolutions, First World War, 1857 Indian War of Independence, etc. All these events started as small, insignificant events but soon developed into mass uprisings of the people against the governing elite of the day or initiated a global war. Similarly, there are several causes, long-term as well as short-term, structural as well as managerial, of the Arab Spring. Some of these are;
1. Demographic Changes
Like all other developing countries, most Middle Eastern nation-states are passing through the most crucial phase of their demographic transition. While the rate of childbirth is gradually falling in almost all countries due to long-term changes in social values and growing prosperity, the death rates are falling even more rapidly because of better health facilities. Consequently, their populations are growing at unsustainable rates, creating huge youth bulges. Concentrated in the urban centres, educated but unemployed young men and women are demanding jobs from their respective states, which are overstretched and hence under stress.
2. Revolution of Rising Expectations
Modernization, which always accompanies industrialization, has brought fundamental changes in the attitudes and behaviour of citizens all over the world. Once set in motion, modernization becomes a self-reinforcing process, penetrating all aspects of life and bringing multi-dimensional changes in any society. These changes, in turn, transform social life and political institutions, bringing rising mass participation in politics in the long run. Consequently, people are now demanding a greater say in public affairs, an open government, transparency in public dealings, and an accountable and responsible executive. There is a sort of dysfunctionality in traditional state-society relations; every successive generation of citizens expects far more than their parents expected from the political leaders and government servants in terms of service delivery.
And they are not content with the peaceful expression of their resentment if the government fails to satisfy their demand; they could be violent. The speed and scale of electronic and social media have facilitated this trend of instant accountability for the state and made it that much easier to mobilize more citizens to respond. In this game of chess, the good intentions of the political elite and the public servants are not enough; they must be backed by effective service delivery and prompt redress of grievances.
3. Globalization and Social Media
Thanks to social and electronic media, small issues that a decade or so ago could only find a place on the back page of a national newspaper have become breaking news on major global channels, creating advocacy and sympathy movements in different parts of the world. This was particularly evident during the Arab Spring, which started with a small incident but swept country after country because of the ubiquity of social media. Maybe at another time, the Arab Spring could have been suppressed in its infancy.
A striking example of how this cyberspace activity created a revolutionary mood among the masses is illustrated by the case of 28-year-old Khaled Mohamed Said, who was beaten to death by Egyptian security forces in 2010. Photos of his disfigured corpse were distributed online, and a Facebook page entitled, “We are all Khaled Said,” created by a Google employee, resulted in hundreds of thousands of followers. Naqeebullah Mehsud’s case in Pakistan is another recent example.
4. Weak States/ Bad Governance
One of the fault lines of almost all the Middle Eastern countries except for Israel and Turkey is their ineffective state-building and the state itself. All their institutions-armed forces, judiciary, law enforcement, etc.—are dysfunctional, suffering from a capacity deficit and massive corruption. It has created crises of confidence among the people about their respective states. Unfortunately, the political establishment in most of the countries in the Middle East, historically governed by authoritarian elites, is not providing their populace with adequate channels of expression and empowerment. Consequently, these countries are increasingly witnessing outbursts of popular resentment against the status quo, which is then exploited by regional and global hegemons as well as non-state violent actors.
5. Financial Crises of 2007–2008
The financial crisis of 2007–2008 proved the proverbial last straw on the camel’s back. While the export earnings in oil-exporting, countries were increasing, other countries were facing severe financial crises, resulting in accelerated inflation, unemployment, declining quality of life, etc. Therefore, frustrated youth took part in protests, demonstrations, sit-ins, and other methods of protest.
Causes of Failure
The Arab Spring was one of the milestones in the long and arduous journey for the empowerment of the masses living under dictatorship in most Middle Eastern countries. Unfortunately, with the exception of Tunisia, it failed to achieve any significant positive results in terms of replacing dictatorial regimes with properly elected representatives in an institutionalized democratic setup. However, it failed in different countries of the Middle East for several reasons peculiar to each country. Thus, it is difficult to pinpoint any definitive set of causes for its failure. But here we do attempt to list a few common reasons for its failure
1. Spontaneity
Though the ground was ripe for this eventuality, it was not an organised movement launched by any organisation well versed in mass mobilisation. It succeeded in Tunisia because the Islamist Ennahdha party, which had suffered immensely during Ben Ali’s dictatorship, took the reins of the movement after it had started. It brought along other stakeholders and was thus successful in the exit of the dictator. In other countries, the Arab Spring just remained a copycat act.
2. Narrow Based
In most Middle Eastern countries, it was seen as a movement by a particular group advancing its agenda by using the grievances of the youth. The old guard saw it as a direct attack on their authority, while the business class generally abstained to protect their businesses. In a few countries, it took on a sectarian connotation, leading to its de-legitimisation
3. Sustainability
To succeed, mass mobilisation needs a lot of resources and challenging work to keep it going over time. In every country witnessing the Arab Spring, the movement ran out of steam before it could gain momentum because of the half-hearted attempts of those who tried to own it.
4. Absence of Institutional Support
The biggest reason for its failure was the lack of support from the state institutions, particularly the armed forces and the security agencies. In the case of Tunisia, it was the absolute neutrality of the armed forces and the wholehearted support of the security establishment that played the most crucial role in toppling the government. Being closer to Europe, these institutions were headed by the Western-oriented elite, which genuinely wanted a transformation of Tunisia along modern lines. And it failed in Egypt after successfully ousting Mubarak for precisely the same reasons: the Western-leaning military establishment soon got fed up with the overly ambitious Islamic agenda of Mursi.
5. Lack of External State Support
Almost all Middle Eastern nation-states are ruled by non-representative rulers who are backed by the West for their vested interests. While the Western population was supporting the Arab Spring, their governments were firmly behind their puppets, supplying arms and intelligence.
6. Hijacked by Non-State Actors
While the movement was the triumph of mostly non-violent mob mobilisation, the movement itself was soon hijacked by non-state violent actors who took advantage of the weak state structures and occupied vast territories. Arab Spring just turned out to be Arab Winter because of the actions of the Jihadists
Lessons Learnt
Whether it was a fad in Middle Eastern politics or going to happen again, the Arab Spring has some very pertinent lessons for every nation-state still struggling with the twin challenges of nation-building and state-building. Some of these are as follows:
1. Governance Matters
The survival of any regime or even system is directly dependent on its legitimacy, both institutionally and emotionally. The latter is, in turn, a result of its performance. In this rapidly globalising world, you cannot remain aloof and must change your system of governance and service delivery to follow the modern cannons of good governance, which ensure operational efficiency, the effectiveness of service delivery, and equality of treatment
2. Democracy Matters
Democracy has been much maligned for its alleged shortcomings, such as corruption, mismanagement, economic disruptions, slow economic growth, etc. However, despite all these allegations, democracy is still the best form of governance humanity has ever experimented with. Let it run its course. Frequent, free, and fair elections will ultimately prop up capable leadership over time, accountable to the public. Only genuine leaders elected through popular universal franchises can hold the nation together; dictatorship always leaves the country broken and in a mess.
3. Institutions Matter
Soon after independence or a regime change, people are very emotional about their newfound empowerment; however, these sentimental legitimacies must be converted into institutional legitimacy by strengthening the service delivery institutions, improving their efficiency and effectiveness, and broadening their ownership. Some of the institutions that matter the most are the armed forces, law and order agencies, judicial institutions, and nation-building departments like health, education, and general administration.
Civil society organisations and the media are two very powerful institutions that can play a crucial role in making or breaking a country. Timely and forceful articulation of the grievances of deprived regions by these institutions should be taken seriously and addressed appropriately. They are also instrumental in creating and fostering common denominators of cultural and social homogeneity in a country. Stifling them will deprive policymakers of a useful channel of two-way communication with the populace.
4. Growth without Social Justice is a Recipe for Disaster
No doubt, economic growth matters because it is only through it that poverty can be alleviated and inequalities reduced. However, the content of the growth and the equitable distribution of its fruits matter more than the growth itself. Patterns of growth envisaged in the initial stages determine the prosperity of certain regions and the deprivation of others in the long run. Let the market forces work, but the state must always be correcting the anomalies these forces always create due to the inherent logic of the capitalistic model of growth. Of course, the capitalistic mode of production is far more efficient than other modes but is also more efficient in its negative fallouts, not only creating inequalities but also accentuating and reinforcing them.
5. Devolution Matters
Devolution of powers and decentralization of service delivery institutions, backed by equitable distribution of resources, is one of the key instruments to keep the feelings of marginalization of people and the regions feeling marginalized in control. Devolution can prevent, reduce, or at least localize public agitation by addressing the issues at the local level and redressing the grievances of the public.
6. Keep an eye on Early Warning Signs
Revolutions do not occur overnight. Their seeds take time to germinate. There is always a time to salvage the situation, provided the leadership is responsible and responsive, civil society is aggressive, and the media is vigilant. Keep an eye on early warning signs and address them promptly and sagaciously. What Machiavelli said five hundred years ago is still applicable. Wrong political decisions are like tuberculosis, easy to cure but difficult to detect in the beginning; once belated, they become easy to detect but difficult to cure.’ of the past. It must be inclusive.
7. Don’t Underestimate Social Media
All other things are constant, if there were no social media, the movement would have been crushed while it was still in the making. However, the movement itself became viral thanks to the outreach of social media, creating waves of symphonies all over the world. Any state will ignore the power of social media at its peril.
What Next?
Invariably, all the Post-Arab Spring states will pass through the same stages on their road to capitalistic development as the Central Asian and East European countries are doing after they got independence because of the fall of the Soviet Empire. These states are suffering from the following three types of maladies:
- Dysfunctional political structures (parliament, political parties, legal and regulatory framework)
- Flawed political processes (elections, the participation of the electorate) and
- Weak political culture (tolerance, accommodation, respect for election results).
These are the inevitable legacies of dictatorial regimes when they are ousted. Coupled with a lack of experienced political leadership, as all those who had expertise in statecraft are sidelined in the new regime and those who waged the campaign are not well equipped to understand the intricacies of governing a complex political economy, the country normally remains adrift in this phase. Consequently, they fail to improve the quality of life of the common man, which was the main driving force for their independence.
However, after some time, people start demanding the civic amenities that had been badly disrupted during the revolutionary phase, creating disillusionment among the masses about the competence of the new leadership, which has institutional legitimacy but now faces a crisis of performance legitimacy. Thus, a new phase of instability starts, which is then exploited by the remnants of the old regime in collaboration with their old foreign benefactors. It will take time, a lot of sacrifices on the part of the people, and help from the global actors, formal and non-governmental, to straighten the economic and political governance of the states.
From the book International Relations: Basic Concepts & Global Issues”, published by Amazon and available at
